New H-1B visa rules- $100k application. Surely it will have an effect on how work is going to evolve
Wage Inflation Meets Unemployment Paradox
The first-order effect will be wage inflation. Companies that continue hiring through H-1B will reserve those visas for senior specialists, driving salaries up. Yet the paradox is that unemployment may also rise — not because Americans are being replaced, but because there simply aren’t enough Americans willing or trained to take those roles.
At the same time, AI-led productivity gains mean fewer hands are needed overall. So while wages climb for a small elite of specialists, total hiring may stagnate or fall — a dangerous combination of higher cost, lower employment.
Freshers and Entry-Level Talent Will Be Squeezed Out
For young professionals — both in the U.S. and abroad — the overhaul is brutal. No company will spend $100,000 on an unproven graduate. The pathway once available through H-1B as an entry point to the U.S. tech market will narrow sharply.
The focus shifts to experienced hires who can justify the premium, while entry-level roles either stay unfilled or migrate offshore. This widens inequality within the global tech talent pool and pushes early-career professionals toward remote or gig-based models.
The GCC Model: A Tariff Away
Many argue that firms will simply expand Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India or other regions. But this shift is not risk-free. A future U.S. administration could easily impose digital tariffs or service-import levies, making offshore delivery nearly as costly as onshore hiring.
Thus, even the GCC “escape hatch” is temporary — globalisation itself is now one policy away from disruption.
Brain-Drain Reversal? Not Quite.
Contrary to popular belief, there won’t be a large-scale brain-drain reversal where Indian tech workers choose to stay home out of opportunity. The pull of the U.S. market remains strong.
However, plans to move — graduate studies, early-career relocations, startup expansions — will be delayed or abandoned. The dream doesn’t die, but it pauses. Ambitious professionals will hedge with Canada, Europe, or hybrid global roles, while the U.S. loses its first-mover advantage in attracting emerging talent.
The Bottom Line
The H-1B overhaul will not repatriate jobs, nor will it massively empower American workers. Instead, it will:
Inflate wages for a small group of specialists,
Suppress hiring for entry-level roles,
Accelerate automation and offshore alternatives, and
Introduce a new era of global uncertainty in knowledge work.
It’s less a labour reform than a realignment of incentives — one where the U.S. remains attractive, but no longer inevitable.